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HASBRO, INC. (HAS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue was $1.3875B (+8% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS $1.64 and adjusted diluted EPS $1.68; both revenue and EPS exceeded Wall Street consensus, which stood at $1.3475B and $1.633, respectively. Management raised full-year guidance on revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA, citing sustained Wizards momentum and improved Consumer Products outlook . Revenue and EPS consensus values marked with (*) are from S&P Global.
- Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming led performance: segment revenue +42% to $572.0M and operating margin 44%; MAGIC: THE GATHERING revenue +55% to $459.4M. Consumer Products declined 7% on retailer order timing and tariff costs; Entertainment revenue +8% with high-margin, asset-light model .
- Full-year guidance raised to high-single-digit revenue growth (constant currency) and adjusted EBITDA $1.24–$1.26B, with adjusted operating margin 22–23%. On the call, management guided Wizards revenue growth of 36–38% and ~44% margin; Consumer Products revenue down 5–8% with 4–6% margin. The Board declared a $0.70 dividend payable Dec 3, 2025 .
- Near-term stock narrative: continued record MAGIC performance, raised FY outlook, and tariff mitigation/supply-chain diversification are positive catalysts; tariff costs and CP mix remain watch items .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Wizards momentum: “MAGIC: THE GATHERING continues to break records” and drove 55% revenue growth on Edge of Eternities and Marvel’s Spider-Man sets, with strong Secret Lair/backlist demand .
- Margin resilience and guidance raise: “We managed tariff volatility with agility, protected margins through cost productivity and pricing discipline… we are raising our full year guidance” .
- POS acceleration and share gains entering holiday; CP highlights include Peppa Pig, GI Joe, Marvel and Beyblade strength with later shelf resets normalizing .
What Went Wrong
- Consumer Products margins compressed: CP operating profit down 32% YoY and adjusted margin fell to 11.2% on tariff expense and unfavorable mix .
- Tariff headwinds: Q3 tariff cost ~$20M; 2025 net impact expected at ~$60M; management assumes China 30% and Vietnam 20% tariff rates while executing mitigation playbook .
- Higher royalties in Wizards: back-half royalty expense tied to third-party IP expected at ~$50–60M; royalty expense up ~$80M YoY, tempering margin expansion despite revenue overdelivery .
Financial Results
Consolidated performance by period (oldest → newest)
Q3 2025 vs estimates and prior periods
Values marked with (*) are from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
KPIs and mix
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Wizards of the Coast led the way as MAGIC: THE GATHERING continues to break records… Consumer Products POS and market share accelerated ahead of the holiday… we’re poised to enter 2026 with momentum” .
- CFO/COO: “We managed tariff volatility with agility, protected margins through cost productivity and pricing discipline… we are raising our full year guidance” .
- CFO on tariffs and supply chain: “Maintaining our assumption that the China tariff rate stays at 30% and Vietnam at 20%, we continue to expect $60 million of impact in our 2025 P&L… by 2026, we expect ~30% of total toy and game revenue sourced from China and ~30% based in the U.S.” .
- CFO on Exodus: “Capitalized software ~$350M… ~65% of development cost hits in the launch quarter… flows through cost of goods and is not added back to EBITDA” .
Q&A Highlights
- Segment puts/takes for Q4: Wizards raise driven by revenue; royalty expense level similar Q3 → Q4; CP shipments to outpace POS as later shelf resets catch up; modest CP top-line growth possible .
- Tariff impact: ~$20M cost in Q3; ~$60M net impact in 2025; 2026 tariff cost larger (full-year), net impact mitigated via pricing, mix, sourcing, OpEx control .
- Royalty expenses: Back-half royalty expense ~$50–60M tied to Universes Beyond; total royalty expense change ~$80M YoY .
- Pricing/promo strategy: Focus on price points under $15–$20; limited elasticity seen; retailers leaning in on incremental promotions (Amazon, Walmart, Target) .
- Inventory and orders: U.S. retail inventories down mid-to-high teens entering Q4; replenishment accelerating; expected to cut deficit roughly in half by year end .
- Capital allocation: Priorities unchanged—invest in growth engines, maintain dividend, continue debt reduction; leverage target ~2.5x by year end .
Estimates Context
Values marked with (*) are from S&P Global.
Consensus target price: $91.54 based on 13 estimates* across periods [GetEstimates].
Where estimates may need to adjust:
- Wizards outperformance and raised FY revenue/EBITDA guidance point to upward revisions on FY top line and EBITDA, and possibly Q4 revenue/EPS if holiday sets and CP replenishment trends persist .
- CP margin guidance (4–6%) and tariff costs temper full-scale upward margin revisions; expect models to reflect higher royalties and tariff-related mix effects .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q3 was a clean beat on revenue and EPS, driven by record MAGIC and strong Wizards mix; FY guidance raised—supportive for near-term sentiment .
- Watch royalty and tariff costs: back-half royalties ~$50–60M and 2025 tariff impact ~$60M; margin resilience depends on mix, pricing, and supply-chain diversification execution .
- CP trajectory improving sequentially with POS acceleration and later shelf resets; Q4 shipments expected to outpace POS and reduce inventory deficits—near-term topline support .
- Asset-light Entertainment is lumpy but structurally high-margin; not a primary earnings driver, but supports brand flywheel into 2026 .
- 2026 setup: Universes Beyond pipeline (TMNT, Marvel Superheroes, The Hobbit, Star Trek) plus Exodus launch provide multiyear growth vectors; note Exodus accounting impacts gross margin and EBITDA add-back dynamics .
- Balance sheet/lifecycle capital: leverage ~2.5x by YE; dividend sustained; continued debt reduction—de-risking equity story .
- Actionable: bias models to raised FY revenue/EBITDA, hold CP margin assumptions within guided bands, incorporate sustained Wizards margin ~44% and higher royalties; monitor December Game Awards announcements and Q4 set performance for upside catalysts .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 Timing)
- Peppa Pig collaboration (Little Tikes) expanding preschool presence ahead of holiday—supports CP brand momentum .
Notes on Non-GAAP Adjustments
- Adjusted metrics exclude acquired intangible amortization, strategic transformation initiatives, restructuring and severance, loss on disposal of business, eOne divestiture costs, and the Q2 non-cash goodwill impairment; reconciliations provided in the release .